Eli Lilly's $1 Trillion Milestone: Or, How We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Weight-Loss Pill
Alright, so Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly, hits a $1 trillion market cap. Big deal. Another day, another soulless corporation raking in cash hand over fist. Except, wait for it, they're not selling us the latest phone that'll be obsolete in six months. They're selling... weight loss? And diabetes cures? Suddenly, everyone's a goddamn philanthropist.
The Mounjaro & Zepbound Boom
Let's be real, this isn't about altruism. This is about cold, hard cash. Mounjaro hauled in $6.52 billion last quarter, Zepbound chipped in another $3.59 billion. That's over ten billion just from two drugs. Ten. Billion. You could probably buy a small country with that kind of scratch. And total sales growth for Eli Lilly? A tidy 54%. Not bad for pushing pills, eh?
They've cornered nearly 60% of the U.S. incretin market, and Zepbound's got a 71% share of new prescriptions in the branded obesity market. It's a freakin' monopoly in the making. Everyone's so busy chasing the next NVDA or META that they missed the real gold rush is in… convincing people they need to be thinner.
And it's not just in the US. Mounjaro's launched in 55 countries, with 75% of international revenue coming from people paying out of pocket. That's right, folks are so desperate to lose weight, they're shelling out their own hard-earned cash. Is that a testament to Lilly's genius, or a damning indictment of our society's obsession with body image? I'm leaning towards the latter.
The Future is Orforglipron (Probably)
But wait, there's more! Eli Lilly's got this oral GLP-1 pill called orforglipron that's apparently kicking ass in trials. Superior efficacy compared to oral semaglutide? Sounds like a recipe for even more billions. And they're building new manufacturing facilities? Offcourse, gotta keep up with the demand when everyone and their mom wants to be a size zero.
They're projecting 2025 revenue between $63 billion and $63.5 billion. Earnings per share guidance? Up to $23 to $23.70. Plus, FDA approval for a breast cancer treatment and EU approval for an Alzheimer's drug. So, they're not just profiting off our insecurities... mostly.
I saw some analyst blathering about how the weight loss drug market could be worth $150 billion by the early 2030s. Give me a break. It's gonna be way more than that. We're talking about an entire industry built on selling a dream. And let's be honest, dreams are expensive.
So, What's the Catch?
Okay, so LLY stock price is going through the roof. Everyone's happy. But here's the thing: only about 8 million people in the U.S. are on incretins out of roughly 170 million who could benefit. That's a massive untapped market. And Pfizer just dropped $10 billion on Metsera. Suddenly, it ain't such a clear field anymore.
Bernstein raised its price target on LLY to $1,300. The 52-week high is $1,066. And the current price target is $1,012. So, everyone's bullish. But what happens when the side effects start piling up? What happens when people realize that a pill isn't a substitute for a healthy lifestyle? What happens when the competition heats up and the price wars begin? I'm not saying it will happen, but...
It's Just Legalized Drug Dealing
Look, at the end of the day, Eli Lilly is a pharmaceutical company. They're in the business of making money, not saving lives. And right now, the easiest way to make money is by preying on our insecurities about weight and health. It's genius, I guess. But it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth.